Tuesday, June 30, 2015

787 Dreamliner 2015 mid year report



2015 so far is a good year for the 787.  Midway through 2015 Boeing has delivered 64 787 including 23 787-9.  In June Boeing delivered 10 787 - 6 787-9 and 4 787-8.  One the production front, the program loaded 64 different air frames to start final assembly and rolled out 63 by June 30th.

In terms of efficiency, the Everett lines were slightly more efficient at a ratio of 0.96 for the first half of 2015 versus North Charleston at 1.05.  June was not a very efficient month for North Charleston as its efficiency ratio in June was 2.0 versus Everett at 0.88.  For North Charleston the score was skewed by 4 deliveries made in May and only 2 in June while production rate was around 3 and 4 respectively.  In other words there was an extra delivery made in May and I suspect there will be 4 deliveries from North Charleston in July.

With quarter end there usually is a push to get as many airplanes delivered as possible but Boeing 787 deliveries from May to June were down from 13 to 10.  While still respectable, the 787 delivery number was hurt by continued issues with seat installations in airplanes destined for American Airlines and Etihad Airways.  Additionally, the change in production rate in Charleston may have slowed things a bit as Boeing is being careful with the break in rate at both 787 lines now that the surge line is winding down.

Speaking of the surge line, there are only 4 more 787 air frames that are scheduled to be built on that line.  Boeing will now slow that line down to a point where only 1 787 will be loaded each month from July to October (there were 3 loaded in June). With the 2 surge air frames now going to 40-26 and 88-30.  There will be an increase in the number of air frames on the Charleston flight line as there is a transition time where deliveries will have to catch up to the production rate.  This may not happen until the end of the summer.

For the last half of this year, expect that 787-9 deliveries will outnumber 787-8 deliveries which is expected as there are over 475 787-9 to be delivered against just under 200 787-8.  In fact June 2015 was the first month where 787-9 deliveries did outnumber 787-8 deliveries as mentioned earlier.  I expect this trend to more or less continue each month.

787 Full Production Table
787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Friday, June 19, 2015

Boeing donates first 787 to Centrair

Well I reported sometime ago that Boeing was going to donate ZA001 to a Japanese exhibitor.  Well the question of whom is solved and it is going to Centrair in Nagoya where parts of the 787 are constructed including the center wing boxes.  I expect the aircraft is expected to depart around June 21 or 22nd for Nagoya.  Here's the press release:

Centrair and Boeing are pleased to announce the donation of the first 787 Dreamliner ever made – a flight test airplane known as ZA001 – to Centrair.
35% of the Dreamliner's airframe structure – the main wing, forward fuselage and center wing box – is manufactured in the Greater Nagoya area and transported from Centrair to Boeing's final assembly plants in the U.S. in a specially converted 747-400 freighter known as the Dreamlifter. Centrair is the only airport in Japan served by the Dreamlifter, which means that ZA001 is coming back to the place that literally gave it wings.
Centrair is delighted that Boeing has chosen to donate the historically significant first test plane, ZA001, to Greater Nagoya, which plays such an important role in the manufacturing of the 787 Dreamliner. Boeing donated the third 787 test airplane, ZA003 to Seattle’s Museum of Flight in November 2014, and the second, ZA002, to Pima Air and Space Museum in Arizona in March this year.
ZA001 first took to the skies on December 15, 2009 from Paine Field, adjoining Boeing's Everett factory, watched by more than 12,000 people. The last flight of this airplane to Centrair is like a "homecoming" for ZA001.
ZA001 will be put on display at Centrair. Through the exhibition, Centrair expects to raise interest in aerospace – and contribute of this "next generation industry" for the Greater Nagoya region. The airport also hopes that it will spur the imagination of the young people of Japan and the next generation of aerospace pioneers.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 4

Talk about pulling your nuts out of a fire at the last minute.  Airbus was on the verge of being embarrassed on their home soil until a last minute deal with Wizz Air for 110 A321neos saved their chestnuts.  There are two bright spots for Boeing: 1) they were able to hold their own with Airbus in terms of Air Show orders this year and apparently the Wizz Air order could have easily gone in Boeing's favor and 2) Boeing did beat Airbus on widebody orders.

However, everyone knows that this is just 4 days out of 365 and we have a whole other 6 months + coming up that would see some major fleet contests being decided including the Emirates decision widely expected in November.

Boeing
AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)
Ethiopian – 6 x 787-8 (Firm)
Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)
Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)
Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (LoI)
Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)
Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)
Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)
SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)
Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)
Unknown Customer – 1 x BBJ 737 Max 9 (Firm)
Volga-Dnepr – 20 x 747-8F (MoU)

Airbus
ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo (Firm)
Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)
Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)
Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)
GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)
Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Firm)
Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)
Synergy – 62 x A320neo (MoU)
Unknown Customer – 60 x A320neo (MoU)
Wizz Air – 110 x A321neo (MoU), 90 x A321neo (Purchase Rights)
VietJetAir – 6 x A321 (Firm)

ATR
Air Madagascar - 3 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
BahamasAir – 3 x ATR42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)
Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)
Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)
Japan Air Commuter – 8 x ATR42-600 (8 Firm, 15 option)
Unknown Customer - 2 x ATR72-600 (Firm)


Bombardier
WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC
Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)
Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer
Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)
Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)
Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)
United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International


Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 3

Day three bought more widebody orders for Boeing especially a nice shot in the arm for the 747-8.  Volga-Dnepr signed an MoU for 20 747-8F that will be partly purchased direct or acquired via lease.  Another shot in the arm came in the form of Ethiopian taking up 6 early build 787-8 airframes which I reported earlier but just confirmed today by the airline and Boeing.  This leaves Boeing with only 4 early build 787-8 left to sell:  LN4, LN5, LN17, & LN19 (the last 3 are GE-powered airplanes).

Airbus booked a couple of major MoU for the A320neo but that was about it.  Tomorrow should be the last day for any deals to be announced.  I'm still hoping that Boeing will announce the customers behind a couple of 787-9 deals that have so far remained unknown.

Boeing
AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)
Ethiopian – 6 x 787-8 (Firm)
Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)
Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)
Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (LoI)
Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)
Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)
Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)
SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)
Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)
Unknown Customer – 1 x BBJ 737 Max 9 (Firm)
Volga-Dnepr – 20 x 747-8F (MoU)

Airbus
ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo (Firm)
Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)
Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)
Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)
GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)
Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Firm)
Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)
Synergy – 62 x A320neo (MoU)
Unknown Customer – 60 x A320neo (MoU)
VietJetAir – 6 x A321 (Firm)

ATR
Air Madagascar - 3 x ATR72-600
Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
BahamasAir – 3 x ATR42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)
Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)
Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)
Japan Air Commuter – 8 x ATR42-600 (8 Firm, 15 option)
Unknown Customer - 2 x ATR72-600 (Firm)


Bombardier
WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC
Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)
Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer
Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)
Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)
Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)
United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 2

Boeing's order book exploded with a number of 737 orders that were announced today.  Airbus posted three orders, the largest coming from Korean Air for 30 x A321neo.  Still there are two more full days for all the commercial manufacturers to make a splash.  So far the only major manufacturer that has been quiet is Bombardier with the C-Series.  Coming on the heels of news that their aircraft is beating weight and performance specs, the company still hasn't posted a sale for the CS100 or CS300.

On the 787 front there were no new orders but there was an apparent cancellation by Aeroflot for the 22 787s that they ordered a few years back.  Apparently things have "changed" and they no longer needed the aircraft.  Given the political climate between the US and USS...er...Russia this is hardly a surprise.  No word on their orders for the A350 and if they're going to be cancelled.  I do believe that the slots that Aeroflot has given up can be quickly filled given the demand for near term delivery slots for the 787.

One bit of positive news is that ALC will be leasing 10 787-10 to Vietnam Airlines thus complementing their 787-9s.  I'm hoping that tomorrow will give us some positive 787 news but as always, watch this space or follow me on Twitter as I'd retweet information coming out of Paris.

Boeing
AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)
Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)
Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)
Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (Firm)
Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)
Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)
Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)
SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)
Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)

Airbus
ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo
Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)
Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)
Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)
GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)
Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Frim)
Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

ATR
Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR42-600 (Firm)
Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)
Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)
Japan Air Commuter – 9 x ATR 42-600 (8 Firm, 1 option)
BahamasAir – 3 x ATR 42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)
Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR 42-600 (Firm)

Bombardier
WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC
Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)
Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer
Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)
Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)
Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)
United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International


Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Monday, June 15, 2015

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 1

With day 1 of the 2015 Paris Air Show in the bag, there were a few surprises but on the whole a typical first day at the bi-annual air show. Airbus, which usually saves up order announcements for the big summer air shows (Farnborough or Paris) went out to quick lead.

The surprise was Garuda Indonesia signing LoIs for 30 787-9s along with the 737Max and A350.  No one saw that one coming and it's nice to see the 787 picking up another major customer when this order is finalized.  Despite the A350 order from Garuda, the airlines widebody fleet is mostly the A330 with a few 777-300ERs.

Another surprise...Qatar's firm order for 10 x 777X.  Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research says that this is not the 777X order that Boeing had booked last week along with the 15 x 787 cancellations.  In fact he confirmed my suspicion that Etihad is the source of the 777X order as well as the 15 787 cancellations (though the order is attributable to an unknown customer, it is Etihad's).  Etihad may announce the 777X order at Paris but it currently unknown if they will.

Boeing
Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)
Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737MAX (LoI)
Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Airbus
ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo
Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)
GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)
Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

ATR
Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR42-600 (Firm)
Japan Air Commuter – 9 x ATR 42-600 (8 Firm, 1 option)
BahamasAir – 3 x ATR 42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)
Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR 42-600 (Firm)

Bombardier
WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC
Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)
Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer
Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)
Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)
Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)
United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Sunday, June 14, 2015

787 Flight testing, Paris 2015 preview, and 787 order cancellation



In a period of 4 days, June 10 to June 13th, the 787 program conducted 7 B-1 flights which is quite a few in a short span of time.  It does raise the question of how many 787s Boeing is planning to deliver by the end of this month.  Thus far in June Boeing has delivered 2 787-9s, a low number for sure.  But like in previous quarter ends, they usually end the quarter with a slew of deliveries and the 2nd quarter, 2015 doesn't look to be any different.  One thing that is interesting to note is that it appears North Charleston will deliver only 2 787s this month.  Given the flight test activity of the last few days, I believe that Boeing will ultimately deliver a total of 12 787s including the 2 already delivered.  This will include around 8 787-9 and 4 787-8.

Last week, we saw a cancellation for 15 787s.  We still don't know which model or the customer but Jon Ostrower tweeted a possible tantalizing clue:

If the customer who bought the 10 777X is the same as the one who cancelled the 787s then the only tow possibilities can be ANA and Etihad.  However this is where it gets interesting.

When Air Berlin cancelled it's order for 15 787-9s last year on September 26th, another order for 15 787-9 also was recorded on the same day.  It is widely rumored that there was transfer of the order from Air Berlin to Etihad which, given that Etihad partly owns Air Berlin, is unsurprising.  It now appears that Etihad may have traded in those 15 787s (the unidentified 787-9) for the 10 777X increasing their order to 35.  More information may be coming in the next few days during the Paris Air Show.

So speaking of the Paris Air Show, from some of the noise that I've been hearing, it may be quiet with regards to 787 orders though there may be an announcement by Qatar Airways regarding their 787 options of which they have 30.  Also I expect that the some of the unidentified customers for the 787 will be made public including Ethiopian's top up order for 6 787s coming from the early build 787s that are currently stored at Everett. Hainan's 30 aircraft order for the 787-9 should also be made public during the coming week.  I'll be staying on top of the news coming from Le Bourget during the week and updating this blog as the news comes out....unless I'm a sleep.

787 Full Production Table
787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer